A bad haze season is coming, and the smoke starts at home

Southeast Asia is being warned to brace for a bad haze season, and much of the smoke is expected to come from Indonesia. The Singapore Institute of International Affairs says a "severe" haze event is likely, worst in August and September, as an approaching El Nino and a "positive Indian Ocean Dipole" dry out the region. Both are weather patterns that leave the air and land drier than usual, which raises the risk of forest and land fires. South China Morning Post reports the smoke would spread to Malaysia, Brunei, and Singapore as well.

The haze is not only a weather story. Much of it starts on Sumatra, where land is cleared by burning, often to make room for palm oil. When the smoke drifts across borders, it has repeatedly strained Indonesia's ties with its neighbours, who breathe the same air. The worst event on record came during the deforestation crisis of the late 1990s, and the problem has returned many times since. Singapore's health ministry is already advising people to use N95 masks, which filter out fine smoke particles, during long spells outdoors.

For Indonesia, the warning is a yearly reminder that clearing land the cheap way carries a public cost, in health and in diplomacy.

Why it matters

If you live in Sumatra, Kalimantan, or a downwind city, a severe haze season can mean weeks of unhealthy air, closed schools, and cancelled flights, so it is worth planning for masks and air filters now. For the country, another cross-border haze event would test relations with Singapore and Malaysia yet again. Watch whether the government moves early against illegal burning, before the driest months arrive.