The reshuffle move that mattered was at the police, not the ministries

President Prabowo Subianto announced his reshuffle on 1 October. It touched 10 ministries and six state institutions, and most foreign coverage went to the new finance and foreign ministers. Writing for Indonesia at Melbourne, Ary Hermawan points to a quieter change with more weight behind it. General Listyo Sigit Prabowo, a long-standing ally of former president Joko Widodo, lost the job of National Police chief and was moved to Presidential Chief of Staff, a palace post with no force under it. His replacement, General Suyudi Aryo Seto, then cleared out the officers Listyo had appointed. CNN Indonesia counted 450 police officials moved in Suyudi's first 12 days, among them more than a dozen senior officers and regional chiefs.

Hermawan reads all of this as preparation for a fight with Jokowi's family. The timing helps his case. On 6 October the Constitutional Court said it found no evidence that Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi's eldest son, holds a valid high school diploma. That brought new calls for his impeachment and doubts about whether he can run for president in 2029. Critics have also questioned whether Jokowi himself finished his degree at Gadjah Mada University. Jokowi, still popular, has joined PSI, the small party led by his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep, and campaigns for it. After the ruling he softened his line on Gibran's future, saying the election is still a long way off.

The rivalry, Hermawan argues, is not driven by personal grudges. Prabowo's state-led economy and the military's growing role in civilian work have favoured pribumi business owners, meaning those counted as ethnically native Indonesian, while sidelining ethnic Chinese tycoons who did well under Jokowi. Those businessmen, and the officers just removed, now have reason to look his way instead. Prabowo is still careful to keep some Jokowi allies close: Bahlil Lahadalia was promoted to coordinating minister for downstreaming and energy transition, which holds Golkar inside the coalition. The vote is about 26 months away, and both camps are formally still on the same side.

Why it matters

If you deal with the police, the force you meet next year may be staffed by officers picked for loyalty in a political contest rather than for the job. A court ruling about a school diploma is now a weapon in the fight over 2029, which shows how much weight judges are being asked to carry. Watch whether PSI stays in the coalition, and whether the ministries changed this month start delivering or simply keep changing hands.