Indonesia speeds up a major military build-up in 2026

Indonesia is entering a big year for rebuilding its armed forces, part of a wider arms race across Southeast Asia. Writing in The Diplomat, James Guild lays out the shopping list. Indonesia has launched new Merah Putih frigates, warships built at home under a British licence, and is preparing to build two Scorpene submarines with France. It also expects the first of 42 French Rafale fighter jets, part of an US$8 billion deal, to arrive this year.

The buying does not stop there. Indonesia bought two warships from Italy worth more than US$1 billion, is close to finishing a joint fighter-jet project with South Korea called the KF-21, and has shown interest in Chinese and Turkish jets and drones. Behind it all is a large jump in defence spending for 2026. The pattern is regional: the Philippines has approved a US$35 billion military upgrade of its own.

For Indonesia, the goal is to guard a vast sea territory and keep up as neighbours arm themselves. But the timing is awkward. The spending comes just as the government faces a tight budget and a weak rupiah, so these deals will compete with other priorities for scarce money.

Why it matters

Big defence deals shape both national security and the budget, and every dollar spent on jets and ships is a dollar not spent on schools, health, or subsidies. For Indonesia, the build-up signals it wants to defend its waters without leaning on one power. Watch whether all these purchases are actually paid for and delivered, or trimmed when money gets tight.