Indonesia has no written plan for China, two analysts say

China is Indonesia's largest trading partner and the main source of money in its nickel industry. Yet Jakarta has never written down what it wants from that relationship, argue Kevin Zongzhe Li and Brian Wong in Fulcrum, the commentary site of Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Indonesia takes each deal as it comes, they write, and has even let Beijing choose what the relationship is called: a "strategic partnership" in 2005, a "comprehensive strategic partnership" in 2013, and a "community with a shared future" in 2024.

The gap shows up in documents. A joint statement signed in November 2024 carried wording about "joint development in areas of overlapping claims". Indonesia has said for decades that it is not a party to the South China Sea dispute, so one line in one statement put a long-held position in doubt. That kind of slip is possible, the authors say, because the palace, the foreign ministry, the economic ministries and the maritime agencies each talk to Beijing on their own, with no shared script.

The money side is where readers will feel it. About 400,000 people work along the China-backed nickel chain in Indonesia, from the mines to the smelters. Li and Wong want Jakarta to ask for clearer terms in return: training for local workers, and technology transfer, which means the skills and the equipment stay in the country instead of only the ore leaving it. They also want the state to build its own China expertise, with officials who read Chinese and understand how decisions get made in Beijing.

Their argument about timing rests on the other side of the table. Washington has closed USAID, its aid agency, walked away from the $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership meant to help Indonesia move off coal, and left the Paris climate agreement. With less on offer from the United States, Indonesia has fewer places to turn when it sits down with China.

Why it matters

If you work in nickel, or in any business built on Chinese investment, the terms Jakarta agrees now decide whether those jobs stay simple assembly work or become skilled and better paid. Watch the wording of the next joint statement, not the handshake, because that is where Indonesia's maritime claims are defended or quietly signed away. Foreign investors and neighbouring governments read those texts closely, even when almost no one in Indonesia does.